小麦全要素生产率变化及其影响因素分析——基于全国15个小麦主产省份数据的实证研究

Change of total factor productivity of wheat and its influencing factors——Empirical study based on data from 15 major wheat producing provinces in China

采用DEA-Malmquist模型,对2001-2016年全国15个小麦主产省份小麦全要素生产率进行测算分析,并进一步探讨其影响因素.研究表明:2001-2016年,全国小麦全要素生产率年均增长2.8%,其中东北地区增长最快,东部地区增长速度略高于中部地区,西部地区发展缓慢.通过对小麦全要素生产率影响因素进行固定效应回归发现:人力资本、农机总动力、粮食补贴政策等对小麦全要素生产率具有正向影响,人均收入、农林牧渔业劳动力和受灾率则具有负向影响,年均气温、有效灌溉面积影响并不显著.建议小麦种植未来发展应着重加强农业人才培育和提高农业机械化水平.

The DEA-Malmquist model was used to calculate and analyze the total factor productivity of wheat in 15 major wheat producing provinces in China from 2001 to 2016, and its influencing factors were further explored. The results showed that from 2001 to 2016, the national total factor productivity of wheat increased by 2.8% annually, the northeast region had the fastest growth rate, the growth rate in the eastern region was slightly higher than that in the central region, while the development in the western region was slow. Through the fixed effect regression on the factors affecting the total factor productivity of wheat, the results showed that human capital, total agricultural machinery and agricultural subsidy policies had positive effects on wheat total factor productivity, and per capita income, the labor force of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and disaster rate had negative effects. The impacts of annual average temperature and effective irrigated area were not significant. The study suggested that the future development of wheat planting should focus on strengthening the cultivation of agricultural talents and improving the level of agricultural mechanization.