两部件冷备系统可靠度的Bayes估计

Bayes Estimation of Reliability of Two-Component Cold Standby System

研究给出了两部件冷备系统可靠度的Bayes估计,在此基础上针对超参数的先验分布分别讨论了Bayes假设和Jeffreys先验两种无信息先验的情形,进而给出相应的系统可靠度的多层Bayes估计。通过数例分析对冷备系统可靠度的Bayes估计及两种超参数先验分布下的多层Bayes估计的精度进行了比较,并且说明了多层Bayes估计的合理性。

Bayes estimation of reliability of two-component cold standby system is given. On this basis,we discuss the Bayes hypothesis and Jeffreys priori for the non-informative priori distribution of hyper-parameters,then the multi-layer Bayes estimation of the system reliability is given. The accuracy of multi-layer Bayes estimation under the two kinds of hyper-parametric prior distributions is compared by the example. We also compare the accuracy of Bayes estimation and multi-layer Bayes estimation. Finally,the rationality of multi-layer Bayes estimation is explained.