基于云模型的海岸脆弱性评估——以厦门岛为例

Assessment of island coastal vulnerability based on cloud model:a case study of Xiamen Island

脆弱性评估很大程度上存在着模糊性和随机性,为有效解决评估过程中定性概念与评估指标按隶属函数定量描述这一不确定转换问题,本文基于云理论本文选取海岸地貌、海岸高程、海岸坡度、海岸缓冲能力、有效波高、道路价值和建筑价值为指标,构建了厦门岛海岸脆弱性评估指标体系,运用云模型评估手段定量测度了厦门岛海岸脆弱性空间分异特征。评估结果与客观情况比较吻合,检验了指标体系的合理性和评估模型的适用性。本文提出了海岸脆弱性综合评估模型,实用有效,可以推广到与厦门岛类似的区域,为海岸管理及规划提供科学指导。

There are uncertaintyand randomness in vulnerability assessment to a great extent. In order to effectively solve the evaluation process of qualitative concepts and evaluation indicators according to the membership function of quantitative description of this uncertain conversion problem, based on cloud theory, this paper selects coastal geomorphology, coastal elevation, coastal slope, coastal buffer capacity, significant wave height, road value and building value as the indexes. The index system of coastal vulnerability assessment of Xiamen Island was constructed, and the spatial differentiation characteristics of coastal vulnerability of Xiamen Island were measured quantitatively by means of cloud model evaluation. The evaluation results are in good agreement with the objective situation, and the rationality of the index system and the applicability of the evaluation model weretested. A comprehensive evaluation model of coastal vulnerability is proposed, which is practical and effective, and can be extended to a similar area to Xiamen Island to provide scientific guidance for coastal management and planning.