印度成为RCEP谈判之“钉”的原因分析及近期立场变化

The Reasons for India to Be an Obstacle of the RCEP Negotiation and Its Recent Change of Positions

自RCEP进程开启以来,印度的态度一直犹疑不定,现已成为阻碍谈判的RCEP之“钉”。文章首先从应对世界贸易体系变革,缓解美国贸易战火压力,谋求经济利益或避免经济损失三个方面,揭示了印度参加、滞留于RCEP谈判的根本原因。再从产业发展入手,探讨印度谈判立场的形成与演进,发现保护稚嫩的制造业发展、推进优势服务出口构成了印度强硬谈判立场的核心要素。最后,文章探讨了近期印度谈判立场的变化,发现印度在保持强硬姿态的同时,也为未来谈判预留下交易的空间;同时也指出印度为谋求更有利的协议条款,逐渐走上“以拖待变”之路。各方要想推进谈判、达成协议,将不得不强化对印度施压或增加利益诱惑,引导它做出实质性让步。

Since the start of the RCEP process, India s ambivalence has been a stumbling block to the negotiations. First, the article reveals the fundamental reasons for India s participation and delay in RCEP negotiations from three aspects: dealing with the reform of the world trade system, easing the pressure of a trade war with the United States , seeking economic benefits or avoiding economic losses. Next, this paper discusses the formation and evolution of India s position in the negotiations from the perspective of Indian industrial development, and finds that protecting the immature manufacturing industry and promoting the export of services are central elements of India s tough negotiating stance. Finally, the paper discusses the recent changes in India s negotiating position, and finds that while India maintains a tough stance, it also reserves room for future negotiations. It also points out that India was on a path to " delay for change" in pursuit of better terms. To move forward with the deal, the parties will have to push India to make substantial concessions, either through increased pressure or increased incentives.