“革命性论文”学科扩散的早期识别及影响因素分析:以诺奖论文为例

Early Identification and Influential Factors of Disruptive Papers: Take Nobel Prize Articles as Example

[目的/意义]革命性论文能够打破某一领域研究现状,促进研究范式的转移。有学者认为革命性论文超出了当前人们的认知范畴,需要经过较长时间才能被认可,并建议基于文献计量学指标的科研评价从更长时间窗口考察论文。这有利于对论文的革命性做出客观、科学的评价,却不利于追踪研究前沿和及时评价研究人员的工作。[方法/过程]以诺奖论文为例,对革命性论文学科扩散的早期特征与影响因素进行了研究,采用学科组合系数对1900-2017年生物医学领域的诺奖论文(革命性论文)与非诺奖论文(常规论文)进行比较,分析了两组论文发表后5年内的学科组合系数大小,并从团队规模、参考文献量、参考文献新旧三个方面对该系数的影响因素进行了分析。[结果/结论]研究发现:70%以上的革命性论文自发表后第2年其学科组合系数高于常规论文,这对追踪研究前沿、制定政府资助政策以及研究人员的评价具有重要启示。团队规模和参考文献量是影响该系数的因素,有待进一步探讨。

[Purpose/Significance]Disruptive papers can disrupt the current research system and prompt the paradigm shift. Some scholars argue that disruptive papers have beyond human cognitive ability and need more time to be recognized, thus the time span of current research evaluation should be extended. This is good for a more objective and efficient research evaluation but is hard for research fronts detection and timely outcome evaluation of researchers.[Method/Process]This paper takes Nobel Prize articles as an example, and explores the early characteristics and influential factors of disruptive papers at early stage. We proposed a combination coefficient of papers to compare the value of Nobel Prize winning papers and Nobel snub papers in the field of Physiology or Medicine from 1900 to 2017, and analyzed the combination coefficient of these papers within 5 years after their publication, as well as the potential influential factors from team-size, reference quantity, and age of reference aspects.[Result/Conclusion]Results show that the combination coefficient can identify more than 70% of the revolutionary papers in the second year after their publication, which has implications for detecting research fronts, government funding policies and evaluating new researchers. Team-size and number of references are two potential influential factors that affect the combination coefficient, which still requires further exploration.