后冷战时期美国大战略的演进：基于战略惯性的视角

Strategic Inertia and the Development of U.S.Grand Strategy

冷战结束初期,基于捍卫国土安全、维持权力平衡、遏制"流氓国家"、建立民主和平、协助海外盟友"五大支柱",美国政府在短期内规划并实践了以维护美国"首要地位"、建构并主导自由主义国际秩序为目标的大战略。在短期内,对大战略既定路径的遵循有助于美国实现其全球利益。但从长期看,对大战略的路径依赖使其内部出现了战略惯性,其直接结果是决策精英群体难以对其中存在的缺陷进行调整和克服。对美国大战略惯性的考察可以置于组织战略惯性的视域下进行,其产生并逐步增强的因素源于美国政府的遵守承诺、固化认知和有限理性。从老布什政府到克林顿政府,美国大战略惯性得以形成并逐步深化。奥巴马政府意识到了惯性对美国大战略的掣肘,但在调整过程中却陷入困境。特朗普执政后,将"克服惯性"作为大战略转向进程的核心理念与首要要务。尽管特朗普政府的这一改革进程遭遇诸多阻力,但至今仍未停滞,且日趋深化。

In the early stage of post-Cold War era,the U.S.government had soon formulated a Grand Strategy which aimed to maintain its″primacy″worldwide as well as to construct and dominate a liberal international order.This Grand Strategy was formulated upon″five pillars″:defending homeland security,maintaining the balance of power,punishing″rogue states″,establishing democratic peace and assisting allies overseas.Hence,the Grand Strategy,both by its means and ends,has been generalized as a trending topic among politicians and academics.In the short term,adherence to a Grand Strategy of″primacy″will help the United States to keep its global interests and reach its strategic goals.In the long run,the reliance of existing Grand Strategy has created a kind of″path dependence″effect,which finally evolves to strategic inertia.As a result,it is difficult for political elites to adjust the existing Grand Strategy as well as to improve it.In order to make a further understanding of the strategic inertia inside the U.S.Grand Strategy,this paper starts to analysis the U.S.government’s organizational inertia.Three factors that gradually generated and enhanced the strategic inertia are:(1)the commitment to compliance,(2)the solidification of cognition,and(3)the bounded rationality.This paper believes that the strategic inertia of the United States was formed and deepened during the period of the Bush(the 41 st President)and Clinton administrations.During the Bush(the 43 rd President)administration,there had been many critics pointing out the negative effects of the strategic inertia posed on the Grand Strategy.However,the government generally ignored these alerts.At the beginning of his first term,Obama realized that this kind of inertia had already become a constrain of the further strategy development.However,limited reform had been taken and it was difficult to change the status quo.By the time that Donald Trump came into power,″overcoming inertia″had already become one of his primary political tasks.Although the Trump’s reform has encountered many obstacles,the strategic inertia has not yet stagnated and still move on gradually.This paper is the first research attempt to use the theory of strategic inertia to discuss the evolution of U.S.Grand Strategy in the post-Cold War era.Based on the comparative analysis between U.S.governmental documents and the country’s actual behavior,our work verifies the hypothesis that the post-Cold War Grand Strategy of the United States has been restricted by the strategic inertia.For this reason,the development and implementation of the U.S.Grand Strategy has been constrained.This means that any effort to adjust this strategy from the decision-making community will be restricted by this strategic inertia.It is still a myth whether or not Trump administration could keep trying to overcome the strategic inertia in the future.