基于蒙特卡洛模拟的我国老年人长期照护需求测算

Demand for long-term care—based on Monte Carlo simulation

目的对我国长期照护服务的需求进行测算,以期为建立长期照护保险制度提供参考。方法通过多个渠道收集数据,利用宏观仿真需求模型和蒙特卡洛模拟,对我国失能老人数量、护理需求和总费用进行模拟预测。结果 2020至2050年,我国失能老人数量从2 711.3 (2 644.5~2 778.1)万人增长到6 551.4 (6 118.5~6 984.4)万人,总失能率由2020年的10.8%增长到2050年的13.7%,基本上呈线性增长的趋势;我国老年护理费用总额从2020年的5 703 (5 089~6 318)亿元增长到2050的54 668 (47 894~61 442)亿元,呈现加速增长的趋势;轻度失能老人的总护理费用最高(2050年为30 400亿元),其次是重度失能老人(2050年为16 820亿元),中度失能老人总护理费用(2050年为7 449亿元)最低。结论我国失能老人长期照护需求增长迅速,长期照护保险需要将居家、社区和机构护理整合为有机整体,建立多元化、多渠道的筹资途径。

Objective To explore the demand of long-term care in China. Methods Data was collected through multiple source. Using macro-simulation demand model and Monte Carlo simulation, the demand of long-term care in China was simulated and predicted. Results From 2020 to 2050, the number of elderly disabled people in China will increase from 27.113(26.445-27.781) million to 65.514(61.185-69.844) million, and the total disabled rate will increase from10.8% in 2020 to 13.7% in 2050. The total expenses will increase from 570.3(508.9-631.8) billion Yuan in 2020 to 5466.8(4 789.4-6 144.2) billion Yuan in 2050. The total cost of mildly disabled elderly was the highest(3 040 billion yuan in 2050), followed by the severely disabled elderly(1 682 billion yuan in 2050), while that for the moderately disabled elderly was the lowest(744.9 billion yuan in 2050). Conclusion The demand for long-term care for the disabled elderly is growing rapidly in China. It is necessary to integrate home, community and institutional care into an organic whole in order to establish a diversified and multi-channel financing approach.