财政政策转型的区制分析与效应对比

Analysis of Regimes and Comparison of Effects about Transformation of Fiscal Policy

新常态下我国财政政策调控重点实现了由需求侧向供给侧的转型。本文使用宏观经济数据,运用马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型对财政政策的经济增长效应进行了实证检验。结果验证了我国财政政策对经济增长的影响内生地以2012年为界限划分为两个区制,与宏观调控政策转型和目标走势一致,在长期内对经济增长呈现出显著的非线性效应,而且财政支出与税收的激励效应在不同区制中作用相异。进一步对营改增和个人所得税改革的研究发现,在我国当前所处的经济环境中,提高直接税比重同时降低间接税比重将有利于经济增长。据此对今后我国财政政策的改革进行了后期建议性展望。

Under the New Normal, the regulation focus of China’s fiscal policy has been transferred from the demand side to the supply side. This paper uses macroeconomic data and MSVAR model to test the economic growth effect of fiscal policy. The results verify that the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth in China is divided into two regimes by 2012, which is consistent with the transformation of macro-policy and target trend,and presents a significant non-linear effect on economic growth in the long term. Besides, the incentive effect of fiscal expenditure and tax is dissimilar in different regimes. Further research on the reform of replacing business tax with value-added tax and individual income tax finds that increasing the proportion of direct tax while reducing the proportion of indirect tax will be conducive to economic growth in the current economic environment of China. Therefore, it puts forward some suggestions as expectation for the future reform of China’s fiscal policy.