汇率变动对江苏省产业结构的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Industrial Structure of Jiangsu Province

从汇率变动与江苏省产业结构的发展现状入手,基于泰尔指数分析了江苏省产业结构的合理性。结合江苏省1995-2017年度相关数据,用回归分析及VAR模型的方法分析汇率变动对江苏省产业结构的影响,得出结论如下:汇率波动会对江苏省国际贸易和FDI流量产生影响,而且通过以上两个中间路径对江苏省产业结构调整产生影响;人民币汇率上升时,江苏省的三大产业中第二产业变化最为显著。

This paper starts with the exchange rate changes and the development status of Jiangsu's industrial structure. The rationality of Jiangsu's industrial structure is analyzed Based on the Theil index.We use the regression analysis and VAR model to analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on the industrial structure of Jiangsu Province covering the period from 1995 to 2017.The conclusion is as follows: exchange rate fluctuations will have an impact on Jiangsu's international trade and FDI.When the RMB exchange rate rises,the secondary industry in Jiangsu Province changes most significantly.