中国城市碳排放核算及影响因素研究

Research on China’s Urban Carbon Emission Accounting and Influencing Factors

论文从能源消费、工业生产过程和废弃物排放多个方面对中国城市碳排放进行了估算和分析,并借助空间计量模型对其影响因素进行了研究。结果显示:2001—2015年中国城市年碳排放量基本呈增加趋势,仅2015年的城市碳排放量较2014年有所降低,这主要是由于煤炭消费量和水泥产量的减少;东部、中部和西部地区的城市碳排放量分别占全国碳排放总量的50.25%、26.24%和23.51%,其中,东部地区的占比先增加后降低,中部地区的占比持续下降,而西部地区的占比则持续上升。对城市碳排放影响因素的研究表明,相邻区域的城市碳排放对本地区的城市碳排放造成明显影响;经济规模、城镇居民人均可支配收入、二产比重和城镇化率的提高均在一定程度上促进了城市碳排放量的增长。

China’s urban carbon emissions were estimated and analyzed from the aspects of energy consumption,industrial production process and waste disposal,and their influence factors were studied with the spatial econometric model.The results indicated that:In the past 2001-2015 years,the annual urban carbon emissions were basically increasing,and only the urban carbon emissions of 2015 were lower than that of 2014,mainly due to the reduction of coal consumption and cement production. The urban carbon emissions from the eastern,central and western regions accounted for 50.25%,26.24% and 23.51% of the total carbon emissions in the country,respectively.Among them,the proportion of the eastern region increased first and then decreased,the proportion of the central region kept declining,while the proportion of the western region kept rising.The study on the influencing factors indicated that:The urban carbon emissions from adjacent areas can affect the values in the local region. To a certain extent,the increase of economic scale,per capita disposable income of urban residents,the proportion of secondary production and urbanization rate promoted the growth of urban carbon emissions.