西北五省区交通碳排放现状及影响因素研究

Study on the Current Situation and Influence Factors of Transportation Carbon Emissions in Five Northwest Provinces

论文利用1995—2016年西北五省区交通能源消耗数据,对其碳排放量进行了测算,从碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、能源碳排放结构以及能源强度分析了五省区交通碳排放的现状。基于改进的STIRPAT模型,利用岭回归,探讨了客货运周转量、人均GDP、能源强度、城镇化率、私家车保有量对五省区交通碳排放的影响。结果表明:五省区交通碳排放量与人均碳排放量总体呈波动上升趋势,2000年后,上升趋势更显著;石油使用始终是西北地区交通碳排放的主要来源;能源强度从大到小为:宁夏、青海、甘肃、陕西、新疆;岭回归分析显示,除甘肃省外,西北地区影响因素贡献度均为:能源强度>人均GDP>城镇化率>私家车保有量>客货运周转量,而对甘肃交通碳排放贡献度最大的则是人均GDP。

The paper calculates the transportation carbon emissions of the five northwestern provinces,using the traffic energy consumption data from 1995 to 2016,and analyzes the current situation of transportation carbon emissions in five provinces from total carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,energy carbon emissions structure and energy intensity.Based on the improved STIRPAT model,using ridge regression,the effects of passenger and freight turnover,per capita GDP,energy intensity,urbanization rate,and private car ownership on transportation carbon emissions in five provinces were discussed.The results show that:The total transportation carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of the five provinces generally fluctuate and rise.After 2000,the upward trend was more significant.Oil using is always the main source of transportation carbon emissions in the Northwest area.The order of energy intensity from large to small is Ningxia,Qinghai,Gansu,Shaanxi,and Xinjiang.Ridge regression analysis shows that except for Gansu Province, the contribution factors of the northwest region are:Energy intensity > per capita GDP > urbanization rate > private car ownership > passenger and freight turnover,and the per capita GDP is the largest contribution to Gansu transportation carbon emissions.