基于SD的西部地区产业工业化与生态化耦合发展——以贵州省为例

Research on the Coupling Development Path of Industrial Industrialization and Ecologicalization in Western China Based on SD: Taking Guizhou Province as an Example

生态活力是西部地区实现“后发赶超”的重要依托,为实现西部地区产业工业化与生态化的协调发展,从产业工业化与生态化的耦合内涵出发,运用DPSIR模型和SD方法,建立了西部地区产业工业化与生态化耦合的系统动力学模型,以贵州省为研究对象,在对其产业发展现状进行模拟评测的基础上,提出三种耦合发展路径并对不同路径的发展趋势进行情景预测与对比分析。结果表明:(1)不同的发展路径下,产业工业化与生态化耦合发展的结果存在较大的差异,各耦合发展模式都具有明显的优势和缺陷;(2)根据贵州省的发展特点和一般规律,应用环境友好型发展模式更适合现阶段的产业发展;(3)考虑到资源存量的不可逆性与西部地区产业的生态依赖性,提出从优化布局、建立门槛等方面提高环境承载力和资源储备的政策建议。

Ecological vitality is an important support for the realization of “after catching up with catching up” in the western region.In order to realize the coordinated development of industrial industrialization and ecologicalization in the western region, based on the coupling connotation of industrial industrialization and ecologicalization,the DPSIR model and the SD method were used to establish a system dynamics model of industrial industrialization and ecological coupling in the western region.Taking Guizhou Province as the research object,based on the simulation evaluation of its industrial development status,three kinds of coupling development paths are proposed and the situation prediction and comparative analysis of different path development trends are carried out.The results show that:(1) Under the different development paths,the results of the coupling of industrial industrialization and ecological development are quite different.Each coupling development model has obvious advantages and defects.(2) According to the development characteristics and general rules of Guizhou Province,the application environmentfriendly development model is more suitable for the current stage of industrial development.(3) Considering the irreversibility of resource stocks and the ecological dependence of industries in the western region,it proposes policy recommendations to improve environmental carrying capacity and resource reserves from optimizing layout and establishing thresholds.