京津冀地区空气污染的健康经济损失评估

Health Damage and Economic Loss Assessment of Air Pollution in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

京津冀地区是中国北方经济规模最大、最具活力的重要区域,近些年,该地区经济占国内生产总值(GDP)的10%左右,人口约占中国人口的8%。同时,京津冀地区又是全国雾霾最严重、资源环境与发展矛盾最为尖锐的地区,严峻的空气污染形势会对居民的健康构成威胁。在此背景下,文章利用对数线性暴露—响应函数估计了2016年京津冀地区PM10对居民健康的不利影响,并用效益转化法和疾病成本法将健康影响货币化。结果表明,PM10所引起的健康危害和经济影响不容忽视,北京市、天津市、河北省空气污染造成的健康经济损失分别为338.8亿元、173.4亿元和557.3亿元,占地方生产总值的1.32%、0.97%和1.74%。受人口数量、污染物排放、产业结构等因素的影响,北京市、天津市、石家庄市、保定市和唐山市颗粒物污染的经济损失严重。治理雾霾污染,文章提出合理控制人口规模,根据各地区功能定位制定差别的减排政策。

Jing-Jin-Ji region is the largest and most dynamic economic region in northern China.In recent years,the region’s economy accounts for about 10% of China’s GDP and population accounts for 8% of China’s population.At the same time,Jing- Jin-Ji region has the most serious haze and the most acute contradiction between resources,environment and development.The severe air pollution situation poses a threat to the health of residents.Under this background,this paper estimated the adverse effects of PM10 on health in Jing-Jin-Ji region in 2016 by using logarithmic linear exposure-response function,and monetized the health effects by benefit transformation method and disease cost method.The results showed that the health hazards and economic impacts caused by PM10 could not be ignored.The health economic losses caused by PM10 in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei were 33.88 billion yuan,17.34 billion yuan and 55.73 billion yuan respectively,accounting for 1.32%,0.97% and 1.74% of the GDP.Affected by population,pollutant concentration,industrial structure and other factors,the economic losses of particulate matter pollution in Beijing,Tianjin,Shijiazhuang,Tangshan and Baoding are serious.To control smog and haze pollution,this paper proposes to rationally control the size of the population,and formulating differentiated emission reduction policy according to the functional orientation of each region.