基于灰色GM(1,1)模型对黑龙江省粮食产量的预测

Prediction of Grain Output in Heilongjiang Province Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

应用GM(1,1)模型对1995~2017年黑龙江省粮食产量进行趋势的分析,并且按照发展趋势进行为期三年的预测.所应用到的GM(1,1)模型是按照参数的双向差分进行最小二乘估计,并且在初始值也进行两方面的变动,应用模型初始值加权评均法、模型初始值加权误差平方法.这样可以适当的提高模型的预测精度.

GM(1,1) model is used to analyze the trend of grain production in Heilongjiang Province from 1995 to 2017,and a three-year forecast is made according to the trend.The GM(1,1) model used in this paper is the least square estimation based on the two-way difference of parameters,and the initial value is changed in two aspects:the weighted average method of the initial value of the model and the weighted error square method of the initial value of the model.The prediction accuracy could be improved by the model.