城镇化对中国粮食安全的影响——基于省区面板数据的实证分析

Impact of urbanization on food security:Evidence from provincial panel data in China

尽管城镇化对农业发展的作用一直引起学界的广泛关注,但其对粮食安全的影响尚未形成一致的定论。基于2000-2016年中国31个省(区、市)的面板数据,本文利用中介效应模型探讨了城镇化影响粮食安全的作用机制,并进行了各粮食生产功能区细分的实证分析。结果发现:从全国水平看,城镇化对粮食安全具有显著的正向影响;其中,农地、农业劳动力和农业技术分别发挥了显著的负向、负向和正向中介效应,并且农业技术的正向中介效应最大;从粮食生产功能区细分来看,在粮食主产区和粮食产销平衡区,城镇化对粮食安全均具有显著的正向影响,其中,农业技术的正向中介效应远远大于农地和农业劳动力的负向中介效应;而在粮食主销区,城镇化对粮食安全具有显著的负向影响,其机制表现为农地、农业劳动力和农业技术3种中介作用,并且农地的负向中介效应最大。为确保粮食安全应集约利用农地、提高劳动力质量以及加强农业技术投入。

The role of urbanization in agricultural development has always attracted wide attention of researchers.However,a consensus on the impact of urbanization on food security has not been reached.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China’s mainland from 2000 to 2016,this study used the mediation effect model to explore the impacting mechanism of urbanization on food security,and carried out an empirical analysis for the different types of grain supply-demand balance areas.The results show that urbanization has a significant positive impact on food security in terms of national level.With regard to the effects of the mediating factors,land and labor are negative,while agricultural technology is positive and most significant.Urbanization has a significant positive impact on food security in the main grain producing areas and the supplydemand balanced areas,and the positive intermediary effect of agricultural technology is far greater than the negative effects of both land and labor.However,a significant negative impact exists in the grain importing areas,and the impacting factors include land,labor,and technology,but the negative intermediary effect of land is the largest.To ensure food security,we should focus on using agricultural land intensively,improving the quality of labor force,and strengthening investment in agricultural technology.