乳制品进口对中国不同规模奶牛养殖效率的影响

Effects of dairy imports on the efficiency of cow farming operations of different scales in China

本文首先分析了乳制品进口对中国奶牛养殖效率及不同规模养殖主体养殖效率差异化影响的理论机制,并利用2004-2014年中国28个原奶主产省区面板数据,通过技术差距模型,实证检验了乳制品进口对中国不同规模奶牛养殖主体养殖效率水平影响的差异。研究结果表明:乳制品进口增加从总体上有利于推动中国奶牛养殖业产业整合,具体而言,乳制品进口增加对散养户养殖效率产生负向冲击,加速其退出奶牛养殖业;对小规模、中规模和大规模奶牛养殖主体的养殖效率则产生程度不同的正向影响。其中,对小规模养殖主体的正向影响程度最大,中规模养殖主体其次,大规模养殖主体的正向影响程度相对较小。因此,应科学审视中国乳制品进口贸易形势,实行合理的乳制品贸易开放政策,推进建立多元化的适度规模养殖主体,积极参与国际竞争,促进养殖业总体效率水平不断提升。

In this study we examined how dairy imports affect the domestic cow farming sector in China.We evaluated the effects of dairy imports on dairy operations of differing sizes with the Technological Gap Model using a set of unique panel date of 28 main dairy producing provinces from 2004-2014.The results show that dairy imports contribute to the integration of the domestic cow farming sector.Specifically,there is a negative effect on the efficiency of unorganized farming operations,leading to their exit from the cow farming sector.In contrast,dairy imports positively affect dairy operations of all other sizes,with small size operations bearing the highest effect in magnitude,followed by medium size operations,while large size operations bear the lowest effect.Therefore,China’s dairy import should be analyzed scientifically and trade policy should be implemented reasonably.Diversified moderate-scale breeding entities should be promoted to participate in international competition actively,in order to improve the overall efficiency of cow farming industry.