从汽车行业变化研判中国汽油消费峰值

The study on China’s peak gasoline consumption from automobile industry changes

2018年,中国汽油实际消费量为1.24亿吨,比上年增长5.9%,较近10年8%的年均增速显著降低,反映出汽车行业技术进步、节能与新能源汽车高速发展以及居民出行习惯的改变对汽油消费产生了负面影响。2030年前,中国汽车保有量难以达到潜在的饱和值水平;未来数年,经济后发区域难以支撑国内汽车消费和汽油需求稳定增长;燃油乘用车单车油耗水平趋于稳定,但出行频率降低;节能和新能源汽车推广对汽油需求的影响将由量变实现质变。预计2021-2022年,中国汽油需求量将达到1.28亿吨的峰值平台期,早于行业普遍预期3~4年。建议国家加大国内炼油能力的总量调控,逐步增加汽油出口配额,并加大国内市场规范化治理;同时石油企业的生产和销售要尽快适应汽油由增量市场向存量市场的转变。

In 2018,the actual consumption of gasoline in China was 124 million tons with an increase of 5.9%year-onyear,which was significantly lower than the average annual growth rate of 8%in the last 10 years,reflecting the negative impact of technological progress in the automobile industry,the rapid development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles as well as the change of residents’travel habits on gasoline consumption.It is difficult for China’s automobile ownership to reach the potential saturation level before 2030.In the next few years,it will be hard for the economic late-developing regions to support the steady growth of domestic automobile consumption and gasoline demand.The fuel consumption level of per fuel passenger vehicle tends to be stable while the travel frequency decreases.The impact of energy-saving and new energy vehicles promotion on gasoline demand will be qualitatively changed by quantitative changes.It is estimated that China’s gasoline demand will reach a peak platform period on 128 million tons during 2021-2022,which is expected to be 3 to 4 years earlier than the general expectation.It is suggested that the state increase the total quantity regulation of domestic refining capacity,gradually increase the export quota on gasoline and strengthen the standardized governance of domestic market.At the same time,the production and sales of petroleum enterprises should adapt to gasoline market changed from incremental market to stock market as soon as possible.