南疆四地州农业劳动力剩余率测度及地区差异分析

Measurement of Agricultural Labor Surplus Rate in Southern Xinjiang and Its Influence Factors and Regional Differences

利用超越对数劳动力需求随机边界模型,测算1994~2016年南疆四地州下辖33个县市农业劳动力剩余率及其影响因素,并比较分析地区间剩余率差异。研究表明:四地州整体农业劳动力剩余率约为40%,波动幅度较小;地区经济差异扩大、城镇化发展及产业结构转型未能有效减少农业劳动力剩余,增加劳均播种面积有利于降低农业劳动力剩余率;剩余率及其成因存在明显的地区差异性,和田地区剩余率最高,阿克苏地区最低。减少四地州农业劳动力剩余率应从降低劳动力规模、促进劳动力转移两方面着手,转移模式应因时因地而异。

Using the stochastic boundary model of transcendental logarithmic labor demand,the residual rate of agricultural labor and its influencing factors in 33 counties and cities under the jurisdiction of Southern Territory in 1994-2016 were measured,and the differences in residual rates between regions were compared.The research shows that the overall agricultural labor surplus rate of the four states is about 40%,and the fluctuation range is small.The expansion of regional economic differences,urbanization development and industrial structure transfor.mation have not effectively reduced the surplus of agricultural labor,and increasing the average planting area is beneficial to reducing agriculture residual rate and its causes have obvious regional differences,the highest residu.al rate in Hetian,and the lowest in Aksu.Reducing the surplus rate of agricultural labor in the four states should start from reducing labor scale and promoting labor transfer.The transfer mode should vary from place to place.