中国旅游产业生命周期判断及其时空格局演变

Life Cycle Stage Identification and Patio-temporal Evolution of Tourism Industry in China

采用生长曲线模型和产出增长率法综合判断了中国旅游产业所处发展阶段,并运用探索性空间数据分析方法、重心模型和地理加权回归分析了中国旅游产业时空演变特征及驱动力。结果表明:中国旅游业目前正处在产业生命周期中的成长阶段,旅游重心空间位置相对比较稳定;中国旅游产业在空间上呈现正自相关关系,表现出一定的空间集聚分布特征,且空间集聚程度逐渐提高。局部空间格局演化特征明显,HH集聚区呈现出随中国旅游重心轨迹向中西部扩散的发展态势,LH集聚区空间分布分散,且趋于中西部集中,LL集聚区分布在西部地区,且空间范围呈不断缩小趋势,HL集聚区主要集中在东部和中部地区且分布范围最广;中国省域单元旅游空间结构较为稳定,空间集聚存在较高路径依赖,不同类型空间之间存在一定的转移惰性,较少发生跃迁;资源驱动、市场驱动、交通驱动、创新驱动是影响中国旅游业发展的主要驱动力,其影响程度具有明显的空间异质性。

The Growth curve model and output growth rate approach are applied here to identify the development stage of China’s tourism industry.The spatio-temporal evolution and driving forces are also analyzed with an exploratory spatial data analysis method,a gravity model,and geographical weighted regression.The research shows that:China’s tourism industry is currently in the growing phase of the industry life cycle.The location of the tourism center of gravity is relatively stable.China’s tourism industry has a positive correlation relationship in the overall spatial space,showing a certain spatial agglomeration distribution characteristic which is increasing gradually.It is obvious for the evolution of local spatial patterns,among which,HH agglomeration shows a trend that the tourism centers of gravity spread to the central and western regions of China.The spatial distribution of the LH agglomeration area is scattered,and the spatial scope gradually shrinks and tends to concentrate in the central and western regions.The LL agglomeration area is distributed in the western region and the spatial extent is continuously decreasing.The HL agglomeration area is mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions and has become the most widely distributed area.The spatial structure of provincial tourism units in China is relatively stable.There is a high path dependence for spatial agglomeration with a certain degree of transfer inertia among different types and fewer transitions.Resource drive,market drive,traffic drive,and innovation drive are the main driving forces affecting the progress of China’s tourism industry with obvious spatial heterogeneity impact.