基于灰色预测模型的区域水资源承载力预测分析

Predicting and Analyzing Regional Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yichang Using a Grey Model

水资源承载力研究集综合评价和预测分析为一体。以宜昌市为例,在2005-2015年宜昌市"水资源-社会经济-生态环境"复合系统承载力综合评价基础上,采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测2020年、2025年、2030年水资源承载力;在分析未来水平年预测结果不确定性的基础上,结合最严格水资源管理制度和河长制,探讨4种情景假设下宜昌市社会经济发展模式的可持续性。研究结果表明,未来水平年宜昌市水资源承载力状态良好(2025年左右达到Ⅰ级),建议宜昌市社会经济与生态环境协调可持续发展。

Research on the carrying capacity of water resources involves comprehensive evaluation and prediction and analysis.With Yichang City as a case study,we assessed the comprehensive carrying capacity of a composite system including water resources subsystem,social economy subsystem,and ecology subsystem.Firstly we predicted the carrying capacity of water resources in target years 2020,2025,and 2030 using GM(1,1)model.Furthermore,we examined the sustainability of social economic development pattern under four scenarios based on analysis of the uncertainty of the prediction results in line with the Most Strict Water Resources Management Policy and the River Chief System.Research findings unveiled that the carrying capacity of water resources in Yichang is good in future,reaching degreeⅠaround 2025.Under scenario three,in which sewage declines,river water quality improves,eco-environmental water use and forest cover remain increasing,the social economic development is well sustainable.Thus,we propose that social economy development should be coordinate with ecological environment protection.