信贷投入对民营企业盈利的传导效应探讨——基于Panel VAR模型及脉冲响应函数的分析

The Research on the Conduction Effect of Credit Inputs on Profit of Private Enterprises——Based on the Panel VAR Model and Analysis of Pulse Response Function

本文以2010至2018年我国中小板市场12个行业19家上市民营企业作为研究对象,将信贷投入分解为紧缩型信贷和支持型信贷,利用PanelVAR模型及脉冲响应函数考察信贷投入对企业盈利的传导效应。研究发现:不同的信贷政策对企业盈利具有不对称的影响,紧缩型信贷对企业盈利的冲击影响要强于支持型信贷对企业盈利的促进作用。据此,金融系统在支持民营企业发展的过程中,要重点完善银行业金融机构对民营企业的信贷支持政策,尤其要防止盲目停贷、压贷、抽贷、断贷等做法对民营企业盈利造成严重冲击,为民营企业发展提供足够的成长时间和空间。

Based on 19 listed private enterprises in 12 industries in China’s small and medium-sized board market from 2010 to 2018,the paper classifies credit inputs into tightening credit policy and supportive credit policy to investigate the conduction effect of credit inputs on profit of private enterprises by using the Panel VAR Model and Analysis of Pulse Response Function.The result shows that different credit policies have asymmetric effects on corporate profits.For a unit of credit input shock,the net profits of private enterprises are more sensitive to the impact of tightening credit policy and the effect lasts longer.That is to say,tightening credit policy does more harm to corporate profits than supportive credit policy.Therefore,the financial system should focus on improving the supportive credit policies on private enterprises.In particular,it is necessary to prevent the practice of blindly stopping loans,reducing loans,withdrawing loans and cutting off loans from causing serious impacts on profits of private enterprises and provide sufficient time and space for private enterprises to develop.