绩效衰退、发展周期与企业投资选择——基于中国制造业上市企业的微观证据

Performance Recession,Development Cycle and Enterprise Investment Choices:Micro-evidence Based On China’s Manufacturing Industry Listed Enterprises

以2007—2017年我国绩效衰退的上市公司为样本,对绩效衰退是否影响企业投资选择以及外部发展周期是否影响企业决策进行了探索性研究。研究表明,绩效衰退会激发企业增加投资来改善绩效,绩效衰退程度较轻的企业倾向于增加固定资产投资和研发类投资,而绩效衰退程度较重的企业倾向于增加股权类投资和研发类投资。宏观经济周期和行业发展前景会对企业绩效衰退与企业投资决策关系产生明显的调节效应。由此,绩效衰退程度、宏观经济周期以及企业所处行业发展状况均会影响绩效衰退背景下企业的投资选择。

Taking the listed companies with performance recession in China from 2007 to 2017 as samples,this paper makes an exploratory study on whether the decline in performance affects business investment choices and whether the external development cycle will affect the decision-making of enterprises.Research shows that performance recession can stimulate enterprises to increase investment to improve performance.Enterprises with less performance recession tend to increase fixed assets investment and R&D investment,while those with more performance recession tend to increase equity investment and R&D investment.The macro-economic cycle and industry development prospects will have obvious regulatory effects on the relationship between corporate decline and corporate investment.As a result,performance decline,the macro-economic cycle and the development situation of the industry in which the enterprise is located will affect the investment choice of the enterprises in the context of performance decline.