否定之否定：刘易斯模型与托达罗模型比较与改进——兼论中国农村劳动力转移的政策选择

The Negation of Negation:Comparison and Modification of Lewis Model and Todaro Model:A Study on the Policy Choice of the Transfer of Rural Labor Force in China

刘易斯模型和托达罗模型为发展中国家劳动力转移提供了两种截然相反的政策选择,究其原因:其一,刘易斯模型是适合于发展中国家经济发展初期阶段的理论,而托达罗模型是适合于发展中国家城市化特定阶段的理论;其二,刘易斯模型是从宏观经济结构转换视角,分析发展中国家农业部门劳动力向城市现代部门转移的过程,称为“过程论”,而托达罗模型是从微观个体决策视角,分析农村劳动力向城市转移的决策行为,称为“决策论”;其三,刘易斯模型侧重点是解决二元经济结构问题,而托达罗模型侧重点是解决城市失业问题。两大理论模型的共同缺陷是在解释农村劳动力转移中没有考虑到发展中国家特殊的国情和制度因素,尤其是发展中国家农村劳动力转移的复杂性和阶段性。因此,基于中国农村劳动力流动的阶段性,从决策主体的时间、土地产权和户籍制度等变量因素对托达罗模型进行改进,并提出我国农村劳动力转移的政策选择。

Lewis Model and Todaro Model provide two opposite policy choices for labor force transfer in developing countries,and the reasons are as follows:Firstly,Lewis model is suitable for the early stage of economic development in developing countries,while Todaro model is suitable for the specific stage of urbanization in developing countries.Secondly,Lewis model,from the perspective of macro-economic structure transformation,analyses the process of labor transfer from agricultural sector to modern urban sector in developing countries,which is called“process theory”,while Todaro model analyses the decision-making behavior of rural labor transfer from micro-individual decision-making perspective,which is called“decision theory”.Thirdly,Lewis Model focuses on solving the problems that dual economic structure brings,while Todaro Model focuses on solving the problems of urban unemployment.The common defect of the two theoretical models is that the special national conditions and institutional factors of developing countries are not taken into account in explaining the transfer of rural labor force,especially the complexity and phases of the transfer of rural labor force in China,a large developing country.Therefore,this paper tries to modify the Todaro Model from the variables of the stage of rural labor mobility,the decision-makers and the institutional changes,and proposes the policy options for rural labor transfer in China.