基于风电不确定性模糊量化的综合能源系统规划方法研究

Research on integrated energy system planning method based on fuzzy quantification of wind power uncertainty

综合能源系统是能源结构转型与发展过程中的关键环节,也是高比例可再生能源并网型能源互联网的具体实现。由于多种能源耦合以及可再生能源不确定性等因素的影响,综合能源系统规划设计对经济性和环保性提出了更高要求。文章提出了考虑风电不确定性的综合能源系统能源供给单元容量协调规划决策方法。首先结合风电不确定性集合的区间数量化方法,建立了基于直觉模糊集的风电不确定性量化模型;然后通过对电力系统、热力系统、天然气系统的能源供给单元经济成本和环境成本进行分析,提出考虑风电不确定性的综合能源系统能源供给单元容量协调规划决策模型及求解方法,最大限度降低综合能源系统经济成本和环境成本,提高风电的并网容量;最后通过算例仿真验证了所提规划方法的正确性和有效性。

The integrated energy system is an important part of the process of energy structure transformation and development, and it is also the concrete realization of a high proportion of renewable energy grid-connected Energy Internet. Due to the influence of multiple energy couplings and uncertainties of renewable energy, integrated energy system planning and design puts higher demands on economy and environmental protection. This paper proposes a coordinated planning decision-making method for energy supply unit capacity of integrated energy systems considering wind power uncertainty. Combined with the interval quantization method of wind power uncertainty set, a wind power uncertainty quantitative model based on intuitionistic fuzzy set is established. Through the analysis of the economic cost and environmental cost of the energy supply unit of the power system, the thermal system and the natural gas system, the decision model and solution method for the coordinated planning of the energy supply unit capacity of the integrated energy system considering wind power uncertainty are studied. This method can minimize the economic and environmental costs of integrated energy systems and increase the grid-connected capacity of wind power. The correctness and effectiveness of the planning method were verified in the simulation.