如何有效防范化解信贷市场风险?——研究综述与展望

How to Effectively Prevent and Mitigate the Credit Market Risk: A literature Review and Research Outlook

有效防控金融风险是我国当前风险攻坚战的重点,我国金融体系以间接融资为主,有效防范化解信贷市场风险对于打好风险攻坚战具有"系统重要性"影响。本文梳理评析了信贷市场风险防控相关学术研究和政策研究成果,剖析了已有研究的不足:缺乏对单项风险、单体风险、行业整体风险、系统性风险的有机整合,对于信贷市场风险的计量评估穿透性、覆盖面、有效性不足,关于信贷市场风险防控的政策建议针对性、操作性较弱。在此基础上,提出了后续研究的思路:在研究范畴上,应将信贷市场范围从狭义的银行信贷拓展为广义信贷,并基于"单项-单体-总体-系统性"对风险进行不同层次的划分;在研究框架上,进一步深化、细化信贷市场风险计量评估、风险成因分析、风险传染机制、风险防控政策方面的研究;在研究目标上,不断完善定性与定量相结合的信贷市场风险全面监测评估框架,建立健全现场监管与非现场监管相结合、机构监管与功能监管相结合、审慎监管与行为监管相结合、微观审慎与宏观审慎相结合的监管体系,完善落实权责统一、层层落实、失责必问、惩教结合的问责制度,提出长短结合、标本兼治的针对性建议。

China’s financial system is dominated by indirect finance. Therefore preventing and mitigating the credit market risk is of great importance to win the battle against systemic financial risks. This paper combs and clarifies shortcomings of the existing research related to risk preventing and control in the credit market. First, the existing research lacks a proper integration of individual risk, single risk, overall industry risk and systemic risk. Second, the effectiveness of the current method on assessing the credit market is reduced due to lack of penetration and coverage. Finally, the policy suggestions on risk prevention and control in credit market lacks focus and are difficult to implement. This paper then suggests research proposals for future studies. First, credit market should include the broadly defined credit rather than just bank loans, and risks should be categorized in hierarchy: from single, unit, and aggregate risk to systemic risk. Second, we should study in more depth on the measurement of credit market risk and the analysis on risk causes, risk contagion, risk control policies. Finally, the target should be to propose a comprehensive monitoring and estimating framework on credit market risk, which promotes the combination of on sight and off sight regulations, institutional and functional regulations, precautionary and behavioral regulations, and micro and macro precautionary regulations.