我国短期跨境资本流动规模测算与监管研究

Research on the Evaluation and Regulation of China’s Short-term Cross-border Capital Flows

短期跨境资本作为影响国际收支平衡和汇率均衡的重要因素,对跨境资本流动管理和风险防范都具有重要意义。本文通过对比各类短期跨境资本测算方法,基于数据的真实性、可获得性和经济学意义,对比国际收支的趋势性变化,结合算法设计的合理性以及与国际收支误差遗漏项的关系,得到测算有效且符合我国跨境资金流动实际趋势的短期跨境资本月度时间序列。本文所采用的相对最优算法,完善了对短期外债等短期跨境资金的估算,并通过增加数据来源,提高了对隐藏在其他渠道中短期资本的测算精度。研究发现,2003-2017年间流出入我国的短期跨境资本整体趋势可分为四个阶段:2003-2006年,短期跨境资本呈现波动中小幅流入;2007年初至2011年底转为大幅流入;2011年底至2014年初呈现短期流出入转换变化;2014年中期开始至2017年底转为显著、大幅的持续流出态势。本文在确定最优算法时,创新性地提出通过误差遗漏项,侧面验证测算有效性的检验方法,为进一步完善短期跨境资本流动统计监测与实际应用提供了新的思路。同时,针对测算短期跨境资本流动理论面临的困境,提出了基于流体力学视角的全新解决思路。

As an important factor affecting the balance of payments and exchange rate balance, short-term cross-border capital is of great significance to the management of cross-border capital flows and risk prevention. By comparing all kinds of the calculation methods of short-term cross-border capital flows from the point of views of economic sense, data authenticity and availability, this paper compares different results of trend changes of real balance of payments. This paper then develops the monthly time series data of China’s short-term cross-border capital flows by taking into account the algorithm rationality and the relation with error and missing items. The calculation improves the measurement of short-term foreign debt and increases accuracy by gaining more data sources. It illustrates that the overall flow trend of short-term cross-border capital flows from 2003 to 2017 can be divided into four major phases. From 2003 to 2006, the short-term cross-border capital inflow fluctuated slightly, and turned to a large inflow from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2011. From the end of 2011 to the beginning of 2014, there was a temporary transition from outflow to inflow. From the middle of 2014 to the end of 2017, it presented a significant and substantial outflow continuously. Based on the algorithm, this paper creatively proposes a testing method to verify the validity of measurement through error omission, which provides a new approach for further improving the statistical monitoring and practical application of short-term cross-border capital flow. Meanwhile, the investigation provides a new approach of short-term capital flow measurement on the perspective of hydrodynamics.