基于SARIMA模型的河北省葡萄价格预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Grape Price in Hebei Province Based on SARIMA Model

利用2012年1月至2019年4月河北省葡萄市场价格数据,采用SARIMA模型对葡萄价格进行了短期预测分析。结果表明:葡萄市场价格具有较为明显的季节性特征,2019年葡萄价格的最高值比最低值高49.79%,波动幅度较大。葡萄种植户在今后的生产中,应注重提高葡萄品质,可通过开办直卖店、利用电商平台等新销售模式拓展销售渠道,以减缓葡萄市场价格波动,降低收入风险。

Based on the grape market price data of Hebei Province from January 2012 to April 2019,this paper uses SARIMA model to make short-term forecast analysis of grape price.The results showed that the market price of grapes had obvious seasonal characteristics.In 2019,the highest price of grapes was 49.79%higher than the lowest price,and the fluctuation range was large.Grape growers should pay attention to improving the quality of grapes in production.In sales,new sales modes such as opening direct stores and using e-commerce platform can expand sales channels,slow down price fluctuation of grape market and reduce income risk.