基于系统动力学的城市住宅碳减排潜力研究——以西安市为例

Research on the Potential of Urban Residential Building Carbon Emission Reduction Based on a Dynamic System Model:Take Xi’an as an Example

从系统角度分析社会、经济、能源对城市住宅碳排放的作用,利用系统动力学方法对西安市2017—2030年不同政策情景下的城市住宅碳排放进行模拟,为其住宅低碳绿色发展提供决策依据。结果表明:①建立的城市住宅碳排放系统动力学模型是可行的;②以目前的发展趋势来看,西安市的城市住宅碳排放量将保持逐年攀升的趋势;③提高居民可支配收入占人均GDP的比重对城市住宅碳排放增加带来显著影响;④改变能源结构、提高能源价格的减排效果不明显,淡化城市化增长速度、提升技术水平及增强居民低碳意识都能有效地减少城市住宅碳排放,但是单因素调控相较于综合因素调控的减排潜力有限。因此,在改善居民收入水平基础上,转变城市化发展思维方式,培养居民低碳意识,教育引导居民低碳消费,同时提高新能源的利用、提升技术水平是促进西安市住宅低碳发展的重要途径。

The research analyzes the impact of society,economy,energy on urban residential carbon emission from the perspective of system,in order to simulate the residential carbon emission system of Xi’an city from 2017 to 2030 with different policies situations,and to provide reference for the low-carbon and green development strategy.The result shows that the model is valid.If the current trend continues,the city residential carbon emission will increase year by year in Xi’an.Increasing the share of resident disposable income in per capita GDP has a significant impact on the increase of urban residential carbon emission.The emission reduction effect of changing energy structure and improving energy price is not obvious.Controlling the growth rate of urbanization,upgrading technology level and enhancing residents’low carbon awareness can effectively reduce carbon emission.However,the emission reduction potential of single factor regulation is limited compared with that of comprehensive factor regulation.It is concluded that on the basis of improving the income level of residents,changing the thinking mode of urbanization development,cultivating residents’low carbon awareness,educating and guiding the residents’low carbon consumption,and the same time,improving the utilization of new energy and technical level are the important ways to achieve the low-carbon development of residential building in Xi’an.