基于模糊综合评价的网络舆情预警方法研究

Study on Method of Network Public Opinion Early Warning Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

针对网络舆情突发事件预警问题,提出了一种基于模糊综合评价的网络舆情预警方法。在分析当前网络舆情预警指标体系不足的基础上,从舆情本体、舆情主体、舆情客体3个方面构建了适用于网络舆情预警的指标体系。综合层次分析法和模糊理论,构建了基于模糊综合评价的网络舆情预警模型。选取3个典型舆情事件进行了案例分析,结果表明:所建模型能够融合多源信息,评估突发舆情事件严重等级,预警结果与实际相符,从而验证了方法的科学性和有效性。

Aiming at the problem of early warning of network public opinion emergencies,a method of early warning of network public opinion based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed.On the basis of analyzing the deficiencies of the current index system of network public opinion early warning,the index system suitable for network public opinion early warning is constructed from three aspects:public opinion ontology,public opinion subject and public opinion object.By synthesizing the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy theory,a network public opinion early warning model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is constructed.Three typical public opinion events are selected for case analysis.The results show that the model can fuse multi-source information,assess the severity of public opinion emergencies,and the early warning results are consistent with the actual situation,thus verifying the scientificity and effectiveness of the method.