深圳市河流湿地生态风险的AHP决策分析与管理对策研究

AHP decision-making analysis and management strategies for ecological risk of river wetlands in Shenzhen City

采用AHP程序分析方法,研究并提出了深圳市河流退化湿地生态风险评判与管理措施的指标体系,该体系包括4个风险源和12个管理措施指标;对B层判断矩阵单排序及一致性检验结果表明:人类威胁是河流湿地退化主要的风险源,其权重值W1=0.5531,一致性检验系数CI=0.0500<0.1;对C层判断矩阵单排序及一致性检验结果证明,针对不同风险源应采取不同的管理措施;层次总排序结果认为,控制沿河湿地过度开发、调节流量控制洪水和规范农业养殖业及旅游业3项管理措施,对总目标有较大贡献,其有效性依次为30.47%,19.62%和12.36%,这3项措施是当前治理深圳市河流湿地退化最有效的措施。

By using AHP program analysis method,the index system of ecological risk assessment and management measures for river degradation wetland in Shenzhen was investigated.The results of single order and consistency test of judgment matrix of layer B showed that human threat was the most important risk source of river wetland degradation,with its weight value W1=0.5531 and consistency test coefficient CI=0.050 0<0.1.According to the single order and consistency test results of c-layer judgment matrix,different management measures should be taken for different risk sources.According to the overall hierarchical ranking results,the three management measures of controlling the overdevelopment of wetland along the river,regulating the flow rate,controlling the flood,and regulating the agriculture,aquaculture and tourism had made great contributions to the general project,and their effectiveness was 30.47%,19.62%and 12.36%respectively.The management measures corresponding to the two risk sources of environmental pollution and biodiversity decline were not very effective,which reflects that Shenzhen has made remarkable achievements in controlling environmental pollution and protecting biodiversity in recent years.