城市大气污染排放区域差异与减排路径研究——以安徽省工业SO2排放为例

Regional differences in urban air pollution and its reduction pathways——evidence from industrial SO2 emissions in Anhui Province

以安徽省16个地级市为例,量化评估各城市SO2影响因素的减排效应,提出区域差异化的减排路径。基于全过程控制的视角,采用Kaya恒等式和LMDI完全分解模型,对安徽省16个地级市SO2排放进行因素分解。结果表明,源头预防环节并未起到SO2减排作用,其中经济增长是最重要的促增因素,而产业结构的减排效应相对较小但具有较大的减排潜力;过程控制与末端治理是SO2减排的关键环节,末端治理的减排效应较之于能源强度、煤炭清洁利用等过程控制因子更为显著。研究表明,各影响因素的减排效应存有区域差异,转变经济发展模式、提高末端治理能力是减少安徽省城市SO2排放的通用型措施,而产业结构优化、煤炭清洁利用具有更大的减排潜力,有必要因地制宜制定差异化的区域减排路径。

Taking 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province as an example,this paper quantitatively evaluates the emission reduction effects of SO2 influencing factors in various cities,and proposes regionally differentiated emission reduction pathways.Based on the perspective of the whole process control,the factors of SO2 emission in 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province have been decomposed using Kaya identity and LMDI complete decomposition model.The results show that,the industrial SO2 emissions in Anhui Province tend to decline during the inspectionperiod,and the Front-prevention link promotes industrial SO2 emissions and does not play a role in SO2 reduction,of which economic growth is the most important factor contributing to the growth of industrial SO2 emissions(increased SO2 emissions by46.88×104 t),while the emission reduction effect of industrial structure is relatively small(increased SO2 emissions by 5.79×104 t),but it has greater potential for emission reduction(its positive promotion effect gradually changed to the emission reduction effect during the two five-year plan period).Processcontrol and End-treatment are key links to SO2 emission reduction,but there are significant regional differences.Among them,the emission reduction effect of end treatment is more significant than the process control factors,such as energy use efficiency and coal clean utilization.During the inspection period,the emission reduction effects of the three were 43.24×104 t,15.82×104 t and 4.85×104 t respectively.The study believes that there are regional differences in the emission reduction effects of various influencing factors.Transforming the economic development model and improving the end treatment capacity are general-purpose measures to reduce urban SO2 emissions.At the same time,the optimization of industrial structure and the clean utilization have greater potential for emission reduction.Thus,it is necessary to formulate differentiated regional emission reduction paths according to local conditions.