新疆行业碳排放影响因素分析与碳减排对策研究

On influential factors of carbon emissions in Xinjiang sectors and countermeasures for emission reduction

首先采用IPCC国家温室气体清单指南计算新疆行业能源消费碳排放总量,然后运用Kaya恒等式分析了新疆农业、工业、建筑业、交通业、商业和服务业的人口规模、人均生产总值(人均GDP)和碳强度对新疆行业碳排放总量的影响程度,最后提出针对新疆行业碳排放减排的对策建议。结果表明,1)1990-2016年,新疆碳排放总量上升趋势显著,工业碳排放总量约占新疆行业碳排放总量的75%;新疆行业碳排放强度整体呈持续下降趋势,但工业和交通业的碳强度较高。2)人均生产总值是碳排放增加的主要因素,人均GDP效应和人口效应年均引起碳排放增加1 841万t,贡献率分别达到87%和38%;碳强度是碳减排的重要因素,年均减少380万t,贡献率为-25%。3)比较行业间影响因素发现,工业和服务业的碳强度效应是遏制碳排放增长的主要因素,其效应分别达到-11%、-12%。综上所述,可从经济发展、行业结构及能源利用效率等方面优化新疆行业结构、有效控制和降低碳排放增长速度,实现社会经济与生态环境的协调发展。

Based on the analysis of the energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang during 1990-2016,this paper intends to offer its study on the contribution of the different sectors to the growth of the carbon emissions,which is of great significance to the formulation of the future counter-measures of Xinjiang for the reduction of carbon emissions.Based on the primary energy consumption of different sectors,the IPCC guidelines for the National Greenhouse Gas inventories,the paper has accounted and determinated the carbon emissions of the energy consumption in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2016.And,then,we have analyzed Xinjiang's carbon emission growth in the branches in agriculture,industry,capital construction,transportation,commerce,and the service's driving degree of population scale,GDP per capita and carbon intensity in reference to the Kaya identity.And,finally,we have brought about corresponding suggestions on howto reduce the carbon emissions in the autonomous region.The results of our investigation demonstrate that:(1)The total carbon emission of Xinjiang has increased significantly during the period of 1990-2016,particularly featured with its remarkable phase distribution characteristics,for example,the slow growth stage from 1990 to 2000,the high-speed growth stage in the period from 2001 to 2010 and the slowdown growing stage for the period from 2011 to 2016.Taking the industrial production for example,as a main body of the carbon emissions in Xinjiang,it accounts for 75%of the total carbon emissions.With the continuous decrease of the carbon intensity,the difference in the carbon consumption proves to become quite big,whereas the carbon intensity of industry and transportation remains still at a higher level,thus revealing a trend of fluctuation;(2)The GDP per capita serves as the main factor responsible for the carbon emission increase.The effect of GDP per capita and population scale should be responsible for the annual increase of carbon emissions of 18.41 million tones,which accounts for 87%and 38%of the carbon emissions,respectively.What is more,the carbon intensified effect can also serve as the chief factor for the carbon emission reduction,with annual average reduction of 3.8 million tones and resulted in the reduced carbon emission rate by 25%.(3)From the point of view of the individual sectors,the industry and service industry should be said to be the main factor in curbing the growth of carbon emissions and carbon consumption by a rate of 11%and 12%,respectively.Based on the above analysis,it can be concluded that the successful execution of the above mentioned countermeasures and suggestions in terms of economic development,industrial structure regulation,technological progress,as well as the carbon consumption reduction have made a great stimulating role in effective control and carbon emissions reduction.And,consequently,a great promotive role has been brought about to the realization of the coordinated construction of the economic development and clean and clear environment in Xinjiang.