劳动人口年龄结构与中国劳动生产率的动态演化

Working-age Population Structure and Dynamic Evolution of China’s Labor Productivity

本文以历次人口普查与1%抽样调查数据为样本,将劳动人口的年龄结构引入生产函数,利用嵌套了劳动人口年龄结构CES函数的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,估计了中国的“年龄-劳动生产率”曲线,并分析了其在不同时段与不同区域间的变化趋势。结果显示:从全国来看,中青年劳动者的边际劳动生产率最高,青年劳动者次之,中老年劳动者的边际劳动生产率最低。从分区域结果来看,东部和中部地区的中青年劳动者的边际劳动生产率高,且近二十年来处于上升的趋势,而中老年劳动者的边际生产率接近零,西部地区则由于中青年劳动力大量外迁,表现为青年和中老年劳动力组边际生产率显著大于中青年劳动力组。

Using China’s population census data from 1990 to 2010 and 1%sample survey data,this paper analyzed the differences between the whole China’s and the regional workforce age structures.Then,this paper introduced production function,applying the Cobb-Douglas nested with CES function into working population age structure to estimate the curve of age-labor productivity which suits China’s basic condition.The findings showed,nationally,that middle-aged workers’marginal labor productivity rank first,with the young workers second,the old workers the last.The results of regional classification,the east,the middle and the west,declared that the middle-aged labor of the east and the midland have a high productivity and has been increasing since the last 20 years,while that of the old is close to zero.For the western region,the young and the old workforce has higher marginal labor productivity than that of the middle-aged workforce.