流动范围与农民工定居意愿——基于流出地的视角

Flow Range and Peasant Workers’ Settlement Intention——A Perspective of Out-Flow Area

本文基于流出地的视角研究流动范围对农村外出人口定居意愿的影响,选取2014年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据中农民工主要输出省份河南省和安徽省的流出人口数据进行实证研究。结果表明,相比于跨省流动和市内跨县流动,省内跨市流动具有最高的长期居住意愿,因此更容易实现城镇化和市民化。按性别、年龄分样本回归以及使用混合估计模型和PSM检验解释变量的内生性,回归结果间略有差异但不会改变基本结论。本文从收入预期、融入成本和社会关系网络三个方面解释流动范围对农民工定居意愿的影响,影响机制的检验符合预期。

From the perspective of out-flow area,this paper analyzes the impact of flow range on the peasant workers’ settlement intention. We use samples of Henan and Anhui province rural Hukou migrants from 2014 National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data. The results show that compared to intra-province migration and intra-county but inter-city migration,intra-city but inter-province migration has the highest settlement intention. Hence it is easier to achieve urbanization and citizenship when a peasant worker chooses intra-city but inter-province migration. By sub-grouping in terms of gender or age and using mixed-process model and propensity score matching method for an endogeneity test,the regression results were slightly different but did not change the basic conclusion. Moreover, this paper explains the influencing mechanisms of flow range’s impact on peasant workers’ settlement intention in three aspects: income expectation,integration cost and social relation network. The inspection results of the mechanisms are in line with expectations. Our conclusion and the analysis of the influencing mechanisms shed some enlightenment for the current urbanization policy.