西部地区中心城市碳排放与经济发展关系研究——以西安市为例

A study on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in the central region of western China: a case of Xi’an city

以西安市为研究对象,通过拟合人均碳排放与人均GDP的线性关系以检验其是否符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。选取1997-2016年规模以上工业企业9种能源消费量计算得到的人均碳排放数据,并绘制时间序列曲线。时间序列曲线具有波动式上升的特征,但近年来处于明显的下降阶段;通过拟合人均碳排放与人均GDP之间的关系,发现二者之间呈现倒"U"型曲线关系,西安市人均碳排放与人均GDP之间的关系符合库兹涅茨曲线,并且碳排放随着经济的发展已经超过峰值,说明随着人均GDP增长环境污染已有所改善。结合同期GDP总量、城镇化水平、产业结构及其变化以及技术进步系数进行了灰色关联分析,表明人均碳排放与这些指标均存在相当的关联度。

Taking the city of Xi’an as the research object, the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve is verified by fitting the linear relationship between per capita carbon emission and per capita GDP. The per capita carbon emission data obtained from 9 kinds of energy consumption in Industrial Enterprises above scale from 1997 to 2016 were selected and the time series curves were drawn. Time series curve had the characteristics of increasing, but in recent years in the decline stage. By fitting the relationship between per capita carbon emission and per capita GDP, it was found that there was an inverted "U" curve relationship between the two, and there existed Environmental Kuznets Curve between per capita GDP carbon emissions and per capita in Xi’an, and the carbon emissions exceeded the peak of the economy, which all showed that with the per capita GDP growth, the environmental pollution improved. Combined with the total GDP in the same period, the urbanization level, the industrial structure and its change as well as the technological progress the Grey Correlation were analyzed, which showed that there was a significant correlation between per capita carbon emissions and these indicators.