中国经济金融化测度及其对实体经济发展的影响研究

The Measurement of China’s Economic Financialization and Its Influence on the Development of Real Economy

近年来,我国经济发展中投资偏离实体、资源配置低效和融资风险增强等问题凸显。这对金融体系稳定和经济发展“脱实向虚”产生影响,已引起政府管理部门高度重视。TVP-VAR模型用于确定金融、保险和房地产等因素对金融化影响的权重,测度金融化发展水平并分析其传导机制和成因,重点探讨推进金融开放和改善金融环境的重要意义,并利用Lasso回归分析实体经济发展的影响因素。结果表明:金融化能预测实体经济发展,且正向与负向冲击的影响具有非对称性;调整固定资产投资、政府债券发行量、利率以及股票市场的发展等因素均可以支持实体经济的发展。金融化的影响自2012年起,由抑制转变为促进作用,表明我国实施的金融支持实体经济发展的相关政策取得成效。

In recent years, the economic development of China has highlighted problems such as investment deviating from the entity, inefficient allocation of resources, and increased financing risks. Government management departments are concerned about the impact of these problems on the stability of the financial system and the “Tranform the economy from substantial to fictitious”. Using the TVP - VAR model to determine the weights of factors such as finance, insurance, and real estate, this study measures financialization and analyzes its transmission mechanisms and causes. It is significant to promote financial openness and improve the financial environment. Lasso regression is used to analyze the influencing factors of real economic development. The results show that financialization can predict the development of the real economy. The positive and negative impacts of financialization are asymmetric. The development of real economy can be supported by the adjustment of fixed asset investment, government bond issuance, interest rate and the development of stock market. Since 2012, the impact of economic financialization has changed from inhibition to prmotion. The results show that China's financial policies supporting the development of the real economy have achieved results.