国家政治风险因素对中国OFDI影响研究——基于“一带一路”沿线54国数据的实证分析

The Impact of Political Risks on China’s OFDI——Empirical Analysis Based on Host Countries along the “Belt and Road”

本文利用PRS发布的ICRG中“一带一路”沿线54国的国家风险数据,探讨有关国家政治风险的12个指标对中国OFDI区位选择的影响,发现各因素对中国OFDI的区位选择具有显著影响,但影响方式存在较大差异。具体而言,投资环境(IP)、政府稳定性(GS)和法律制度(LO)对中国OFDI具有显著负向影响,表明中国对沿线国家投资存在“逆向选择”的特点;民主问责(DA)、官僚体系质量(BQ)、腐败控制(COR)和宗教冲突(RT)对中国OFDI具有显著正向影响。为有效保护在沿线国家进行直接投资的我国企业的合法权益,我们可以采取以下措施:各大部委之间加强相互协作,构建对外投资风险预警机制;增强我国企业的政治风险防控能力;加强与沿线国家的多双边合作机制建设。

Basing on the political risk data from ICRG published by PRS Group, this study exams how political risks influence China's OFDI towards countries along the " Belt and Road". Specifically, we test the impact of 12 risk indicators, and find that democratic accountability, bureaucracy quality, corruption, and religious tension positively and significantly affect the OFDI of China, showing that China's OFDI along the " Belt and Road" has the feature of adverse selection;however, investment profile, government stability, law and order negatively and significantly influence the OFDI. In order to protect the legal rights of Chinese enterprises, we could strengthen the cooperation among ministries and commissions, set up a risk warning mechanism, enhance enterprises' anti - risk capabilities, and build up more multi 一 bilateral cooperation mechanism.