计划停电项目供电可靠性评估的区间估计

Interval Estimation for Power Supply Reliability Assessment of Planned Power Failure Projects

供电企业在可靠性管理流程中由于缺失对计划停电项目的预测分析环节,计划停电管理仅停留于事后管理,直接造成了计划停电在停电事件中占了绝对比重,指出了目前的管理模式已不足以支撑社会及供电企业自身对供电可靠性的要求.基于目前供电企业的管理现状,研究通过区间估计算法的应用,对计划停电项目所需停电时间做出预判,帮助企业厘清各项目对供电可靠性的影响,支撑公司实现供电可靠性管理目标,提升管理效益.

This paper points out that in the reliability management process of power supply enterprises,due to the lack of prediction and analysis of planned power failure projects,planned power failure management became feedback control,which directly made planned power failure account for an absolutely large proportion in power failure events.Therefore,the current management mode is not enough to support the demand of the society and the power supply enterprises for the reliability of power supply.Based on the current management status of power supply enterprises,this paper studies the application of interval estimation algorithm to predict the outage time required for planned power failure projects,so as to help enterprises clarify the impact of each project on power supply reliability,support the company to achieve the power supply reliability management goal,and improve management efficiency.