应计盈余管理对~*ST企业“摘帽”的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Accrual Earnings Management on "hat-off" of ~* ST Enterprises

本研究通过随机森林回归模型,对进行应计盈余管理操纵这种非正常手段而实现摘帽的企业,运用应计盈余管理是否会对其将来经营产生影响,以及未来是否会有再次戴帽的可能性进行了分析研究.研究结果表明,通过运用应计盈余管理进行摘帽的*ST企业会在摘帽前的第二年即开始进行应计盈余管理,以达到摘帽的目的.同时本研究发现,通过运用应计盈余管理进行摘帽的*ST公司再次戴帽的可能性高于未进行应计盈余管理的企业.由此可见,进行应计盈余管理操纵的企业可以达到短期目的,实现短期内的业绩改善和摘帽,但不能改善长期的经营业绩.

In this study,the random forest regression model was utilized to investigate whether accrued earnings management would impact on the future operation of *ST enterprises and raise the possibility of "re-hat-on" in the future.The empirical results show that *ST enterprise,which adopts accrued earnings management to "hat-off",will start accrued earnings management in the second year before "hat-off"to achieve the goal of hat removal.Meanwhile,this study found that *ST enterprises,which takes off the hat by accrued earnings management,is more likely to "re-hat-on" than those without accrued earnings management.It reveals that accrued earnings management can help enterprise to achieve short-term goals,and improve the financial statements for "hat-off",but cannot improve long-term business performance.