灰靶决策理论在岩爆烈度等级评价中的应用

Application of grey target decision-making theory in evaluation of rock burst intensity

为解决小样本情形下岩爆烈度等级评价的模糊性和不确定性问题,提出基于多因素灰靶决策理论的岩爆烈度评价方法。首先,利用该方法构建评价指标体系,采用灰色关联法确定各指标权重系数;然后,引入基于正负靶心的灰靶决策理论,建立多维空间岩爆烈度等级评价模型,利用空间投影距离法建立不同岩爆烈度等级的综合靶心距分布集;最后,通过度量靶心距的大小判定岩爆烈度等级。研究结果表明:该方法的评价结果与实际岩爆情况相吻合;相较于粗糙集理论和Russenes判据,能够弱化因信息量不足所造成的决策模糊性,给出更为确切的岩爆烈度判定结果。

In order to reduce the fuzziness and uncertainty in rock burst intensity evaluation caused by incomplete information,an evaluation method for rock burst intensity was proposed based on grey target decision-making theory. Firstly,evaluation index system was constructed,and grey system theory was introduced to confirm the weighted coefficient of each index. Then the multi-attribute grey target theory was introduced to construct multi-dimensional evaluation model for rock burst intensity. Space projector distance was used to construct distribution sets of the comprehensive bull's eye distance under different intensity levels. Finally,rock burst intensity grade was determined by measuring the off-target distance. Results show that the assessment results by the proposed method are in line with the actual situation,and that compared to the Russenes criteria and rough set theory,the proposed method can reduce the fuzziness of decison caused by incomplete information and give more explicit intensity degree of the test sample.