基于两阶段专家评价的大型工程项目社会稳定风险因素权重系数确定方法

Determining Weight Coefficient of Risk Factors for Social Stability of Large-scale Engineering Projects Based on Two-stage Expert Evaluation

大型工程项目依法开展社会稳定风险评估,识别利益相关者对项目建设持有的态度,采用措施化解潜在社会稳定风险,评估等级是政府合理决策的重要依据。评估流程为识别主要风险因素,确定风险发生概率、影响程度和单因素风险指数,根据单因素权重计算综合风险指数。采用权重二阶段专家评价法,第一阶段采用对照法确定通用项目风险因素和对应权重,第二阶段根据具体项目特点确定风险因素和对应的权重;以第一阶段和第二阶段权重差值作为修正系数,对具体项目的社会稳定风险综合风险指数进行调整。结果表明,权重二阶段专家评价法计算得到的综合风险指数表征了项目实际情况,社会稳定风险区分度显著提高,可更好地应用于同类项目社会稳定风险对比分析。

Carrying out social stability risk assessment according to law, identifying stakeholders' attitudes towards project construction, adopting measures to solve potential social stability risks, and assessing the level of risks are important for the rational decisiomaking of the government for large-scale engineering projects. The evaluation process identifies the main risk factors, determines the probability of risk, impact degree and single factor risk index, and calculates the comprehensive risk index according to the single factor weight. In this paper, the weighted two-stage expert evaluation method is used. In the first stage, the risk factors and corresponding weights of general projects are determined by using a comparative method. In the second stage, the risk factors and corresponding weights are determined according to the characteristics of specific projects. Then the weights difference between the first and second stage becomes the correction coefficient to adjust the comprehensive risk index of social stability risk of specific projects. The results show that the comprehensive risk index calculated by the weighted two-stage expert evaluation method can better represent the actual situation of the project, and the risk differentiation degree of the social stability is significantly improved, which can be better applied to the comparison analysis of social stability risk of similar projects.