摘要
目的探讨日均气温与流行性感冒(流感)发病之间的关系,为流感防控提供依据。方法采用时间序列方法,利用甘肃省兰州市2008—2017年流感发病人数、气象资料,应用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析日均气温与流感的关联性。结果2008—2017年兰州市共报告流行性感冒4866例,男、女性别比为1.21:1;6~14岁儿童最多,占34.03%。兰州市日均气温与日流感发病人数呈非线性关系;以年平均气温11.22℃为参照,低温对流感的影响在–3℃,滞后天数为12d(lag12d)最为显著,RR值为1.23(95%CI=1.09~1.37);高温在33.0℃,lag1d时RR值最大,为2.70(95%CI=0.41~17.66)。高温(T=20.1、25.4℃)和低温(T=–5.2、2.1℃)时流感发病危险度与滞后天数的关系均呈“M”型。低温时,–5.2℃的累积效应对全人群、不同性别、年龄人群均在lag14d时有统计学意义,6~14岁儿童的RR值最大,为1.79(95%CI=1.08~3.99)。高温时,20.1℃的累积效应对全人群、男性和女性均在lag3d至lag7d时有统计学意义,6~14岁儿童在lag7d的RR值最大,为6.45(95%CI=3.21~9.23)。结论高温和低温均造成人群流感发病风险上升,高温累计效应大于低温,低温效应滞后期较长,6~14岁儿童是敏感人群。
Objective To analyze the relationship between daily mean temperature and daily incidents of influenza in Lanzhou city and to provide evidences for influenza prevention and control. Methods We collected data on daily influenza incidents reported during the period from 2008 to 2017 among residents of Lanzhou city and on daily temperature of same period. Then we analyzed the data using time series model and distributed lag non-linear time series model (DLNM) to explore the association of daily mean temperature with influenza incidents. Results During the period in the city, a total of 4 866 influenza cases were reported;the male to female ratio of the cases was 1.21 and 34.03% of the cases were children aged 6 – 14 years. A non-linear correlation was found between the daily mean temperature and daily influenza incidents;there were the strongest lag 12-day effect of low daily temperature of – 3 ℃, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.23 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.09 – 1.37), and the strongest lag one day effect of high daily temperature of 33 ℃(RR = 2.70, 95% CI: 0.41 – 17.66) on daily influenza incidents in comparison to the influence of mean annual daily temperature of 11.22 ℃. The M shaped plot depicting the relationship between RR of influenza incidents and lag days of the effect of daily temperature was observed for both the daily low temperature (– 5.2 ℃ and 2.1 ℃) and high temperature (20.1 ℃ and 25.4 ℃). A significant accumulative effect of low daily temperature of – 5.2 ℃ was observed among all the residents at lag 14-day and the effect was the strongest for the children aged 6 – 14 years (RR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.08 – 3.99);while, the accumulative effect of high temperature of 20.1 ℃ was of significance among all the residents from the lag day 3 to the lag day 7 and the effect was also the strongest for the children aged 6 – 14 years, with the RR of 6.45 (95% CI: 3.21 – 9.23). Conclusion Low and high daily temperature associate with increased risk of influenza incidents among residents of Lanzhou city;the accumulative effect of high daily temperature is stronger than that of low daily and lag duration for the effect of low temperature is longer than that of high temperature;the children aged 6 – 14 years are most susceptible to the effect of low and high daily temperature.
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第9期1245-1249,共5页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
甘肃省自然科学基金(17JR5RA347)
兰州市人才创新创业项目(2016–RC–29)