能源资源的稀缺性与动态特征研究——基于1978-2017年煤炭价格指数的实证

Study on Scarcity and Dynamic Characteristics of Energy Resources——Based on the empirical evidence of the 1978-2017 coal price index

随着经济发展与市场供求关系的变化以及人类需求的不断扩展,煤炭资源稀缺性及稀缺程度正在发生变迁。本文利用煤炭工业出厂价格指数衡量了1978-2017年我国煤炭资源稀缺程度。从单位成本与相对价格角度,研究表明:我国煤炭资源的稀缺性在样本期间是波动的,尤其受政策影响较大;尽管我国煤炭资源价格没有完全市场化,但煤炭资源稀缺程度在长期中显现出较强的增长趋势,即在长期中,必须注重煤炭资源的可持续发展能力。

In the context of China’s rapid economic development, the coal industry has entered a new stage, and must meet the requirements of the new situation, so that the coal industry can effectively cope with the current pressures and promote the healthy and stable development of the coal industry. With the changes in economic development and market supply and demand and the continuous expansion of human demand, the scarcity and scarcity of coal resources are changing. This paper uses the coal industry ex-factory price index to measure the scarcity of China’s coal resources from 1978 to 2017, and studies the sustainable development capability of China’s coal resources. The research shows that the scarcity of coal resources marked by the coal industry ex-factory price index shows a strong growth trend in the long run, that is, the sustainable development capacity of coal resources is weakening year by year.