电网投资关键影响因素及其传导路径研究

Research on Key Influencing Factors and Conduction Path of Power Grid Investment

电网投资的合理性对提高我国经济和社会效益、国有资本的整体投资效益和效率、电网企业的效益和稳定发展等具有重要现实意义。然而,目前关于电网投资的分析模型不多,且多数模型考虑的因素很少,其科学性有待进一步论证,系统分析电网投资的影响因素及其传导路径是解决这一问题的前提条件和理论基础。本文从经济、社会、政治、技术、电力行业等方面系统分析了电网投资的影响因素及其传导路径。分析发现:对电网投资产生影响的因素中,关键的宏观环境因素包括GDP、全社会固定资产投资、出口总额、人口数量、工资水平、城市人口比重、财政收入、财政支出和技术进步贡献率;关键的电力行业因素包括发电量、线路长度、售电量、线损率、上网电价和销售电价。

The rationality of power grid investment has important practical significance for improving China’s economic and social benefits, the overall investment efficiency and efficiency of state-owned capital, and the efficiency and stable development of power grid enterprises. However, there are not many analytical models for grid investment, and most of the models consider few factors. The scientific nature needs to be further demonstrated. Systematic analysis of the factors affecting grid investment and its conduction path are the preconditions and theoretical basis for solving this problem.. This paper systematically analyzes the influencing factors and conduction paths of power grid investment from the aspects of economy, society, politics, technology and power industry. The analysis found that among the factors affecting grid investment, the key macro environmental factors include GDP, total social fixed assets investment, total export volume,population size, wage level, urban population proportion, fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure and contribution rate of technological progress;Key power industry factors include power generation, line length, power sales, line loss rate,feed-in tariff, and sales price.