旅游经济增长新旧动能转换评价研究——基于对西北五省区旅游业数据的分析

Research on the Evaluation of New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion of Tourism Economic Growth——Taking the five northwestern provinces as an example

现阶段,我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,作为经济的重要组成部分,旅游经济增长也进入了“新旧动能”转换的重要时期。基于此,本文选取2004-2017年西北五省区新旧动能的相关指标与旅游经济增长的数据,通过面板数据的固定效应模型以及分位数回归模型对西北五省区旅游经济的“新旧动能”总体进行分析,进一步探究“新旧动能”在不同分位数间的动态变化。结果显示:常规动能相对于新动能对旅游经济增长的贡献明显减弱;新动能中,以恩格尔系数的降低与技术进步对旅游经济增长最为明显,市场化进程与人力资本的提高对旅游经济增长具有正向效应。基于以上结论,本文提出应加快旅游经济增长的常规动能与新动能的有效转化等建议。

Since entering the new era, China’s economic growth has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and its growth momentum has also undergone new changes, entering a critical period of the transformation of"new and old kinetic energy";as an important part of the economy, China’s tourism Economic growth has also entered an important period of "new and old kinetic energy" conversion. Based on this, this paper selects the relevant indicators of new and old kinetic energy and the economic growth of tourism in the five northwestern provinces from 2004 to 2017, and uses the fixed effect model of panel data and the quantile regression model to "new and old kinetic energy"of tourism economy in the five northwestern provinces. Conduct an overall analysis and further explore the dynamics of "new and old kinetic energy"between different quantiles. The results show that the contribution of conventional kinetic energy to tourism economic growth is obviously weakened compared with the new kinetic energy. In the new kinetic energy, the decrease of Engel’s coefficient and technological progress are the most obvious for tourism economic growth. The marketization process and the improvement of human capital have the tourism economic growth. Positive effect. Based on the above conclusions,suggestions are proposed to accelerate the effective transformation of conventional kinetic energy and new kinetic energy of tourism economic growth.