中国城市高知老年人养老特点分析——兼论对第二次人口红利的启示

The Analysis of Old-age Care Demand Features of China’s Highly Educated Urban Elderly:Considering the Potential of China’s Second Demographic Dividend

随着我国人口老龄化速度不断加快,有关第一次人口红利式微、我国经济可持续增长受限的消极观点长期影响着学界。本文基于第二次人口红利理论,以老年人内部异质性为研究视角,通过宏观和微观相结合的实证研究发现:随着老年人内部差异分化的不断扩大,越发成为老年人主体的高知老年人具有高储蓄、高投资、高消费、养老需求多元化的特点,这些特点不仅能够为我国养老产业提供更加精准的服务、缓解供需失衡矛盾,而且符合第二次人口红利理论对老年人口的内在要求。基于分析,本文初步得出结论,认为我国具有实现第二次人口红利的可能性。

Along with the accelerating speed of China’s Population aging, the passive opinions that China’s First Demographic Dividend is disappearing and sustainable economic growth will be limited have affected the academic world for a long time. However, this article is based on the Second Demographic Dividend theoryas well as the research perspective of internal differenciation of elderly people, by combining macro and micro empiricleresearch methodologies, and found that as the internal distinction is enlarging within China’s elderly people, the highly educated urban elderly group is becoming dominated and their features of old-age-care demand, including high deposit, high investment, high consumption, and various demands, not only can help our old-age-care industry provides more precise services, alleviating the conflict between supply and demand, but also coincide with the requirements of Second Demographic Dividend theory. As a conclusion, this article holds the opinion that China has the potential to achieve its Second Demographic Dividend.