高质量发展背景下现代服务业经济增长效应研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

On the Effect of Modern Service Industry on Economic Growth under the Background of High Quality Development——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data

现代服务业的高质量程度在某种层次上决定着现阶段我国社会主义现代化水平,已经成为未来时期内经济发展实现新常态的必由之路。基于社会科学领域中的政策效应评价模型,对现代服务业的经济增长效应进行综合评估与个例分析,得出以下结论:总体来讲,现代服务业政策实施后对试点区域产生显著的经济增长效应。而针对每一个试点地区进行个案评价后发现,仅有重庆市和天津市在政策实施干预后出现了明显的经济增长,分析原因是其通过产业结构优化、产业空间集聚和区域创新机制实现的;而上海市和辽宁省的现代服务业政策对经济发展的促进作用还未显现出来,表明此地区应该加快产业政策调整,实现服务业质量水平整体提升,促进地域经济增长。

The quality of the modern service industry determines,to a certain extent,the level of China's current socialist modernization,and this has become the only road the economic development must take to achieve a new normal in the future. Based on the policy effect evaluation model in social science,the paper has made a comprehensive evaluation and case analysis of the effect of modern service industry on economic growth. The following conclusions are drawn:in general,the implementation of modern service industry policies has a significant economic growth effect in pilot regions;the case study of individual pilot regions finds,however,that only Chongqing and Tianjin have obvious economic growth after policy intervention,this is because the two cities have optimized industrial structures,agglomerated industrial spaces,and innovated regional mechanisms;the modern service industry policies in Shanghai and Liaoning have not yet affected the economic growth,indicating that these regions should accelerate the adjustment of their industrial policies and improve the overall quality of service industry to promote regional economic growth.