南京市环境承载力评价及其成因分析

Evaluation of environmental carrying capacity in Nanjing City and its cause analysis

从资源、环境、生态3个维度构建指标体系,运用空间状态法测度了南京市2011~2016年环境承载力状况,并从自然条件、区域发展和管理制度3方面解析影响因素,对其成因进行具体分析.结果表明:尽管南京市2011~2016年间环境承载力状况有所好转,但全市整体仍处于超载状态,主城区超载最严重,其次是六合区、浦口区和江宁区,溧水区与高淳区相对较好.南京市环境承载状态受自然、发展和管理类等多种因素影响,水、土资源禀赋及气象等自然条件对环境承载力起到先天限制作用;人口、产业等社会经济发展因素对环境承载力进一步造成压力,且加剧环境承载状态的空间差异性;管理能力上的不足是重要的影响因素,其不断提高对超载状况则起到一定缓解作用.

With the designed indicator system considering resources,environment and ecology,the environmental carrying capacity of Nanjing from 2011 to 2016 was measured using the State Space Model.The influencing factors were identified from the perspectives of natural conditions,regional development and management system with a concrete analysis.The results showed the environmental carrying capacity of Nanjing increased after 2011,but it was still overloaded on the whole;The urban area was overloaded most seriously,followed by Liuhe District,Pukou District and Jiangning District;and the overloading degree was relatively moderate in Lishui District and Gaochun District;Among various influencing factors,the natural conditions such as water and soil resources,and meteorology played an fundamental limiting role,while the population,industry and other socioeconomic factors intensified the overloading degree of environmental carrying capacity,especially its spatial differentiation.Besides,the improvement of management ability could alleviate the overloading degree.