理解百年未有之大变局

Understanding the “Great Transformations Once in a Century”

2018年6月习近平主席对当今全球态势做出一个重要判断,即世界正处于百年未有之大变局。这一判断是笔者分析和把握现阶段纷繁复杂世界、顺应时代潮流、利用好发展机遇并成功应对挑战的出发点。对百年变局的理解可以从大国实力对比变化、科技进步影响深远并伴随众多不确定性、民众权利意识普遍觉醒、人口结构改变、国际货币体系演化、多边体系瓦解与重建、美国内部制度颓势显露和中美博弈加剧等八个维度进行。在百年变局背景下,还应特别关注那些没有发生明显变化的因素。正是这些“变”与“未变”,构成了中国未来发展的国际大环境。

World history is a constant flow of change. In the last century, this planet saw so many dramatic events: two world wars, followed by a cold war, and the clash of civilizations between Islam and Christianity;and a kaleidoscope of amazing technological progress. But deeper changes are happening today. As Chinese President Xi Jinping said,“This is China’s best period of development in modern history. The world is undergoing the most profound and unprecedented changes in a century. The two tendencies have become increasingly intertwined and contentious.”In other words, the secular changes happening right now will have a greater impact on the future of humanity than all of the transformations of the twentieth century. It was President Xi who recognized the importance of this critical moment in world history, and his analysis in a speech a little more than a year ago sparked vigorous discussion among China’s scholars and researchers. This article has catalogued eight dimensions in which we can identify the depth of these profound changes.