近期中印关系发展趋势研判:“回归常态”抑或“战略性转向”

Recent Trends in Sino-Indian Relations:A Return to Normalcy or a Strategic Shift?

近期中印关系回暖更多的只是一种从对抗向缓和、从非正常向常态的回归,并不能被视为中印关系的战略性转向。崛起国的风险厌恶和止损逻辑,以及双方在各自战略全局中的现实考量是中印关系从紧张状态实现"峰回路转"的深层次原因。在当前及可预见的未来,在国际体系格局未有重大变化前,印度与中国互动的整体趋势将体现为"战略性竞争、战术性合作"。印度已然构成影响中国崛起的次要战略方向上的主要战略竞争对手。中国对印战略应当置于大国崛起的宏观战略全局之下,既要避免中印关系陷入过度对抗、过度僵硬,也要避免对印过度争取、过度安抚。在"印太"概念勃兴背景下,中国对印外交政策和外交行动要涉及三个方面的有效应对:其一,印度本身行为的对华影响;其二,印度对域外大国所带来的战略资源效应;其三,印度对地区中小国家与中国合作所带来的心理威压和现实牵制等效应。

The recent thawing of ties between China and India should be viewed as a move away from confrontation,and a return to a normal relationship,and should not be interpreted as fundamental strategic shift in bilateral relations.The logics of risk aversion and cost minimization that characterize the behavior of rising powers,as well as practical considerations stemming from their respective strategic outlooks are the deeper drivers of the de-escalation of tensions between the two countries.At the present and for the foreseeable future,until there are fundamental changes in the state of the international system,the overall relationship between India and China will continue to be a mix of strategic competition and tactical cooperation.India has already come to represent the primary strategic competitor in terms of its ability to influence the secondary strategic direction of China ’ s rise.China ’ s strategy towards India should be based on the broader strategic context,and should prevent China-India relations from becoming overly confrontational,while avoiding making too many concessions to or demands of India.Further,as the Indo-Pacific concept continues to develop,China ’ s foreign policy and its foreign policy behavior towards India need to effectively respond to three factors:the impacts of India ’ s behavior on China;India being used by large powers outside the region as a strategic resource to contain China;and the effects-both real and perceived-that India has on China ’ s relations with small and medium sized states in the region.